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BAA forecasts 34% growth over 10 years at London airports

BAA has published its annual 10 year traffic forecasts and capital investment plans for Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted airports. It is forecasting that traffic will grow by 41 million passengers pa – 34% – over the next 10 years. BAA has published its annual 10 year traffic forecasts and capital investment plans for Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted airports. It is forecasting average traffic growth of 3.0% per annum for its three London airports over the next 10 years.Traffic demand growth will average about 3.9% per annum between 2005/6 and 2014/15. However, BAA forecasts that capacity constraints will restrict annual throughput growth to an average of 3.0% per annum. An element of traffic demand would, therefore, be lost from the London system as a result of these constraints.

Forecast passenger throughputs

Heathrow

2004/05: 67.7 million passengers paBy 2014/15: 86.0mIncrease: 18.3m or 27%

Gatwick

2004/05: 32 million passengers paBy 2014/15: 41mIncrease: 9m or 32%

Stansted

2004/05: 21.2 million passengers paBy 2014/15: 35.0mIncrease: 13.8m or 65%

Total of 3 airports

2004/05: 120.9 million passengers paBy 2014/15: 162mIncrease: 41.1m or 34%

Assumptions

These forecasts do not make assumptions about additional runways at these airports. A second runway at Stansted would come on stream just after the 10 year period and any additional runway at Heathrow or Gatwick would be well after that.BAA also assumes:

  • UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product – a measure of economic growth) will grow in line with the historical trend, i.e. 2.0 – 2.5% pa.
  • Real air fares decline on average by 0.5% – 1.0% per annum.
  • First full year of Heathrow Terminal 5 (T5) operation in 2008/9
  • Further development of Heathrow non-T5 infrastructure
  • No introduction of ‘Mixed Mode’ at Heathrow

Note – the assumption on prices implies that air travel continues to enjoy its virtually tax-free status and continues to be exempted from the Polluter Pays Principle.

Further information

For more detail see information published by BAA in attachment below. (Reproduced as Word document.)Please note that this is BAA‘s forecast. It is reproduced for information only and the fact that it appears on the AEF’s web site does not mean that we necessarily agree with it or endorse it.BAA Forecast