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Aviation CO2 forecasts published

The government has published new forecasts for passenger demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 2030.

The forecasts are in the document ‘UK air passenger demand and carbon dioxide forecasts’ which was published at the same time as the Heathrow expansion consultation documents. The forecasts are for UK as whole and for the individual London airports.

The forecasts assume:
• 2nd runway added at Stansted in 2015 and a 3rd at Heathrow in 2020
• increase in fuel efficiency of 29.7% between 2005 and 2030
• ‘constrained’ forecast for 2030 of 480 million passengers pa compared with 228m in 2005. 

Results – millions of tonnes of CO2 in a year:  

    2005    2030
Heathrow   18.2  24.9
 Gatwick  4.8  5.4
 Stansted  1.4  3.3 
 Luton  0.6  0.9
 London City  0.2  0.3
Other UK    9.1  18.2
 Ground  1.4  2.2
 Freight  0.6  2.4
 UK total  37.5  58.9

For details of the forecasts and results see DfT web site.

The key feature is the big increase in emissions. While significant improvements in fuel efficiency are expected, they are over-whelmed by the increase in demand.