Aviation and Environment News – October 2024
2nd October, 2024
UK news and airport expansions
Bournemouth
Bournemouth Airport has seen passenger numbers increase beyond pre-pandemic levels. In July, the airport submitted plans to expand terminal buildings and parking facilities.
Gatwick
The Examining Authority is due to deliver its recommendation report to the Secretary of State by 27th November.
London City
In a mixed result, the Government has rejected a key part of the London City Airport expansion plan by maintaining the current noise break between 12:30 on Saturday and 12:30 on Sunday. However, ignoring advice from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the airport has been given permission to operate three extra flights from 6.30am till 7am and to increase annual passenger numbers from 6.5 million to 9 million.
Reaching this capacity may be difficult as London City had previously planned to attract leisure passengers using the currently unavailable Saturday afternoon slots. The airport may now try to use larger planes to accommodate more passengers as total flights remain capped at 111,000 per year, although the length of the runway limits aircraft size.
Analysis by Possible and the New Economics Foundation also revealed that 54% of journeys from London City Airport would take under six hours by train, raising further questions over the necessity of the airport expanding.
Luton
The deadline for a decision on the proposed development of Luton airport was extended to 4th October by the previous Secretary of State due to the General Election and has now been extended again to 3rd January by current Transport Secretary Louise Haigh.
In June’s newsletter, we outlined that a series of Luton airport expansion adverts had been reported to the Advertising Standards Agency (ASA) by NGOs and campaign groups for not mentioning that emissions from flights are not included in their ‘‘environmental limits’’. This claim has recently been upheld, with the ASA concluding that, ‘‘the ads omitted significant information and were therefore misleading.’’
Other UK News
Following the ruling on Luton, the ASA have also banned a radio ad about ‘Sustainable
Aviation Fuel’ (SAF) from Virgin Atlantic. Using the phrase ‘100% SAF’ was deemed
misleading as it could imply that the fuel had zero environmental impact.
This article from Politico provides a good up to date rundown of current thinking around SAF. The BBC has also published a fairly positive view of SAF in the UK.
In a major legal update in the UK, the Supreme Court has ruled that Surrey County Council acted unlawfully by providing planning permission for oil production at Horse Hill in Surrey without considering the environmental impacts of the oil being burned.
In contrast to the previous coverage of Taylor Swift, Coldplay have stated that the emissions from their current world tour are 59% lower than previously. One of their key pledges is to use public transport and minimise air travel, using SAF when flying is necessary. The group are aware they still produce significant environmental impacts, with lead singer Chris Martin saying, “The people that give us backlash for that kind of thing, for flying, they’re right.”
The Bristol-based collective Massive Attack has been particularly vocal on the responsibility for the music industry to cut emissions. In August, they headlined Act 1.5, a day festival powered by renewables and described as a ‘climate accelerator’. Lead singer Robert Del Naja encouraged action from fellow musicians, saying, ‘‘It’s important to keep reminding ourselves … you can tour, and you can travel by train when you can.’’ The group have previously commissioned a roadmap to low-carbon live music for the UK.
To add a small Taylor Swift footnote, Luton Airport reported that passenger numbers were boosted by fans flying from the UK to her gigs, with flights to Paris seeing a 35% increase from 5th to 12th May when the Eras Tour kicked off its European stint in the French capital.
Sticking with pop culture, The Athletic have revealed that across the last 100 matches in the Premier League last season, clubs made 58 journeys using chartered flights.
Lastly for the UK, there have been a number of planned and carried out protests at airports by Just Stop Oil in recent weeks, with actions at Gatwick, Heathrow and Manchester all leading to the arrest of protesters. Various airports have taken out High Court injunctions to attempt to prevent any potential protests taking place.
International News
Airports
There have also been climate protests at airports in Europe, with 5 people from the group Last Generation glueing themselves to the taxiway at Frankfurt Airport alongside similar actions at other airports. Cargo flights were disrupted at Leipzig/Halle airport for 3 hours.
The Dutch government has put forward new measures to reduce the impact of night noise from Schiphol Airport – the proposals include a reduction of night flights from 32,000 to 27,000 in 2025 and a ban on the loudest aircraft from operating between 23:00 and 7:00.The Portuguese government has shelved plans to build a new airport on an internationally protected estuary near Lisbon. The legal challenge has prompted the Government to pick a new site for the airport which still raises concerns over the global impacts of any new airport.
Airlines
Moving back to SAF briefly, Lufthansa has announced that they will add a surcharge of between €1 and €72 per ticket from 2025 in response to the EU rule requiring SAF to contribute at least 2% of all airlines’ fuel consumption.
Air New Zealand has abandoned their 2030 target of reducing carbon intensity by 28.9% from 2019 levels. They cited external factors, including aircraft delivery delays and availability of alternative fuels, as the reasoning behind the decision.
The CEO of Boom, a supersonic flight company, reiterated their desire to start deliveries in 2029. Although supersonic planes burn fuel for less time, they require at least seven times the energy intensity, raising doubts over their claim that ‘we need to care for the planet’.
Continuing the industry push for growth, airlines have projected revenues of $1 trillion for this year, with profits forecasted to rise to $30.5 billion.
European and other international news
A public EU consultation on the monitoring, verification and reporting of non-CO2 emissions from aviation closed in July.
Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the UN, has called for a global ban on fossil fuel advertising, describing fossil fuel companies as the ‘godfathers of climate chaos’. The comments generated reactions globally, with responses in Australia and New Zealand. The Hague has become the first city to ban fossil-fuel related adverts, including ads for aviation.
Some positive news in Spain regarding transport – Spanish high-speed rail traffic was up 37% in 2023, with rail taking a market share of between 77.5% and 93.1% vs air transport on 5 key routes, including Madrid to Barcelona and Madrid to Valencia.
A sector growing in profile is greenhouse gas removals (GGRs)—essentially using technology to take CO2 out of the atmosphere. In the UK’s Net Zero Strategy, it is estimated that in 2050, 75–81 MtCO2 will need to be removed per year. The BBC explored one of the few currently operational plants, located in Iceland. Aviation is likely to have large residual emissions in 2050, with interactions between aviation and removals seeming inevitable.Lastly for international news, this article provides an insightful overview of climate change as a human rights issue and legal routes to achieving change. At the end of August, South Korea’s constitutional court ruled that the lack of legally binding targets for emissions reductions from 2031-2049 violates the rights of future generations. This case is expected to influence legal cases across Asia, with similar lawsuits underway in Taiwan and Japan.
Reports
In a major update on air pollution, Transport and Environment (T&E) published a report which estimated that tens of thousands of people living near airports in the UK are at an increased risk of diabetes, high blood pressure and dementia due to ultra-fine particles.
Another NGO, The Institute for Public Policy Research, have delved into the priorities for the new Government to deliver a better and fairer future for transport across the UK.
There has been growing interest in including airlines in any fossil fuel advertising bans. Badvertising have produced an excellent report on the influence of aviation advertising in football, finding that ‘‘the airline sponsorship deals of the 2023/24 Champions League will annually generate a carbon footprint of approximately 14.7 million tons.’’
Back in June, Stand.earth Research Group revealed that air freight operators have increased their greenhouse gas emissions by 25% vs 2019 levels. Air freighting of non-urgent goods increased during the Covid-19 pandemic and has carried on growing, particularly in the US, which is now responsible for over 40% of air freight emissions.
Continuing the recent push towards alternative fuels, there have been several industry reports covering SAF released in the last few months. Virgin has published the results of their ‘Flight100’ 100% SAF flight and results from Airbus’ ECLIF3 study are available here.
Climate Catalyst, alongside UN Principles for Responsible Investment, has explored the role that investors can play in shaping the alternative fuels transition of aviation.
The second State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report has been published, with Carbon Brief summarising 9 key takeaways from the paper here.
The International Council on Clean Transportation has issued a working paper on the lifetime emissions of aircraft, finding that currently in-service aircraft will use around half of the global carbon budget for aviation before being retired. The other half will be consumed by lifetime emissions from new planes delivered between now and the mid-2030s, meaning that any new aircraft delivered from the mid-2030s will need to emit zero net CO2 emissions.
Lastly, for the reports section, the CCC, the independent advisors on climate change to the Government, have published the 2024 Progress Report to Parliament. The key message is that, ‘‘urgent action is needed to get on track for the UK’s 2030 target.’’ For aviation, the CCC reiterated its recommendation that there should be no expansion of UK airports until the government has developed a capacity-management framework. They also noted that air travel demand ‘‘may increase beyond pre-pandemic levels in the next year of data.’’
Political updates
There has been limited opportunity to assess how Labour’s win in July’s general election will impact aviation, however the recent London City announcement potentially points towards a pro-growth attitude that could clash with CCC recommendations.
Labour’s manifesto was limited in terms of aviation comments, with one sentence that read, ‘Labour will secure the UK aviation industry’s long-term future, including through promoting sustainable aviation fuels, and encouraging airspace modernisation.’
The Conservative manifesto was similarly supportive of the industry: ‘We will support the growth and decarbonisation of our aviation sector. We will back British Sustainable Aviation Fuel through our SAF mandate, an industry-backed revenue support mechanism and investment in future aviation technology. We will support domestic flights including through Public Service Obligations, protecting vital routes within the UK, including to islands and remote areas.’ There was an additional comment ruling out a frequent flyer levy.
The Lib Dem manifesto had more of a climate focus for aviation, with a range of policies listed in the image below:
Similarly, the Green Party’s aviation section was centred on controlling CO2 emissions associated with flying:
Consultations
The Government invited views on a SAF revenue certainly mechanism to assist with the development of UK production by guaranteeing a minimum price for SAF. Our key message, alongside a group of 20 other civil society organisations, was that taxpayer’s money should not be used to fund it. You can find the full rundown of AEF’s response on our website.
We responded to the Government consultation on including GGRs in the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS). Our position is one of caution, in that whilst we offer some support to GGR development, other approaches could be more effective than inclusion in the ETS. Additionally, we do not support the inclusion of nature-based removals and are concerned that the aviation industry will rely on GGRs instead of making major emissions cuts.
The Civil Aviation Authority is currently consulting on providing environmental information to customers. The questions are available here, with the consultation closing on 15th October.
Scientific articles
Caldecott and Johnson 2024: The Carbon Removal Budget: theory and practice
Removals are fundamentally a finite resource due to constraints including energy and hydrogen supply. Supply of removals will therefore need to be carefully managed to ensure an equitable distribution.
Ellis 2024: A social contract case for a carbon tax: Ending aviation exceptionalism
This paper explores the case for a carbon tax on international aviation. The author argues that, ‘‘We find ourselves in a world of aviation exceptionalism, where flying is treated very differently than other sectors.’’ Acknowledging the uncoordinated plans to get aviation to net-zero, they suggest that it is ‘‘possible for each emissions-increasing decision to frame itself as oriented to net zero, while together all of them render the goal unrealizable.’’
Hoolahan 2024: Shifting air travel demand: a case study on enabling experimentation in surface travel
This analysis represents the first empirical evaluation of the employee scheme Climate Perks, which offers additional paid holiday days for those who travel flight-free for leisure.
Pecchia 2024: The impact of climate change anxiety on travel decision-making among Gen-Z university students in Sweden
In this Master’s thesis, two groups were shown different videos, one to raise climate anxiety and one as a control, to see how this affected their views on travel habits. Additional climate anxiety did not encourage sustainable travel decision-making, suggesting that fear and negativity are unlikely to be helpful motivators for climate action.
Muehlberger et al. 2024: Socio-technical imaginaries of climate-neutral aviation
This article explores different possible futures or ‘social-technical imaginaries’ for climate-neutral aviation. These highlight that academia, industry and consulting perspectives are heavily focused on green growth, with the environmental sector alone in suggesting that aviation should aim to reduce demand and explore new travel practices.
Bozigar et al. 2024: Aircraft noise exposure and BMI among female participants in two Nurses’ Health Study prospective cohorts living around 90 airports in the United States
This US-based study has reported that exposure to aircraft noise is associated with a higher BMI and conditions including, heart attacks, strokes and diabetes. This adds evidence to an extensive and growing body of literature that suggests noise negatively impacts health.
Gryspeerdt et al. 2024: Operational differences lead to longer lifetimes of satellite detectable contrails from more fuel efficient aircraft
This paper demonstrates that newer, fuel-efficient aircraft can have a greater climate impact than older planes. New aircraft can fly at higher altitudes which can result in longer-lasting vapour trails that are likely to cause more global warming than lower flying planes.
De Vos et al. 2024: Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes
This article looks at why academics are often frequent flyers, generating the emissions many of them also problematise.