CCC’s analysis sends a warning that aviation emissions are failing to fall fast enough, AEF says airport expansion can not be justified at this time

27th February, 2025

PRESS RELEASE: The Seventh Carbon Budget demonstrates that any airport expansion would undermine the CCC’s trajectory for ‘balanced’ growth to deliver net zero. In addition, the budget’s uncertainty over the delivery of Sustainable Aviation Fuels shows that there are considerable risks in failing to contain the growth of the sector’s emissions in the near term.

CCC’s CB7 advice sends a clear message that the Government needs to do more to reduce the climate impact of flying, with the sector set to go from being the fifth most emitting sector today in terms of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions, to joint-first by 2040. The CCC says that flights need to become more expensive to reflect the social and environmental cost of flying. 

This report casts a huge shadow over any UK airport expansion plans. The CB7 balanced pathway to deliver net zero by 2050 forecasts there will be 400 million passengers using UK airports by 2050 but currently available UK airport capacity is already in excess of this figure. 

The report envisages no growth in UK passenger demand over the next 5 years, increasing by 2% by 2035, and just 10% by 2040 – undermining the growth case for all UK airports. 

In addition, the CCC’s assessment is critical of the Government’s plans for SAF – which is being relied upon to justify expansion – suggesting that volumes will fall significantly short (by 23%) of the 2040 SAF mandate target. The CCC anticipates a global feedstock supply crunch in the next few years as competing mandates kick in. Furthermore, the CCC’s report places even more faith in the role of engineered carbon removals which are even less technology-ready than SAF.

Public testing shows a desire to retain the ability to take an annual holiday abroad. However, there was agreement that flying is a choice rather than a necessity, and there’s support for increasing prices, particularly among frequent flyers and those on more polluting routes; there was also support for limiting airport growth.

AEF is encouraged by the CCC’s efforts to raise awareness about the additional warming impacts of flying, with strong messages on the urgent need to address non-CO2 impacts. Contrail avoidance is an obvious place to start and the UK is well placed to lead more trials.

The Committee’s analysis leaves no room for misinterpretation, the Government must do more to ensure the industry decarbonises quickly. Based on the evidence presented, there’s simply no justifiable rationale for supporting airport expansion. We would welcome further advice from the Committee on how the Government can deliver reductions beyond its recommendation that the industry should pay for the costs of SAF and removals.”

Celeste Hicks, AEF Policy Manager

Contact:

Celeste Hicks, Policy Manager, celeste@aef.org.uk

Tim Johnson, Director, tim@aef.org.uk