Considerable risks remain to the government’s plan to reduce emissions from aviation: CCC warns progress to achieving carbon budgets is under strain
24th June, 2026
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
The CCC’s Progress Report 2026 comes just days after the government published its draft planning framework for Heathrow airport expansion which, on current trends, could result in aviation emissions of 41Mt of CO2 by 2050.
On aviation, the CCC warns there are “significant risks” to the delivery of the volumes of 2nd and 3rd generation SAF needed to contribute to the government’s decarbonisation pathway from 2027. The CCC also warns that using international credits from the UN’s Corsia offsetting scheme introduces further risk, especially if these credits are of poor quality. This is significant as parliament debates the setting of Carbon Budget 7 (2037-2042) today – AEF has repeatedly warned that it is not credible to rely on international credits to help aviation beyond 2035, as there are currently no plans to extend the UN offsetting scheme beyond that.
The shadow of Heathrow
Although the CCC report acknowledges that aviation emissions fell by 0.5% in 2025, they warn that it is not yet clear if this is a sign of a definitive downward trend. AEF believes that pushing forward with an enormous expansion of Heathrow at this time is an unnecessary risk.
The 2026 Aviation Forecasts published last week by the Department for Transport show that the techno optimism which characterised the 2022 Jet Zero strategy has been scaled back. Comparing the Jet Zero’s projection of 19MT residual emissions by 2050 in a scenario where SAF and greenhouse gas removals (GGRs) are maximised, the new forecasts suggest that figure will now be 28Mt of residual emissions by 2050, well above the CCC balanced pathway.
These 28Mt of “residual emissions” in 2050 are emissions which remain when the rest of the economy has successfully decarbonised.They will need to be removed from the atmosphere and stored away permanently to achieve net zero. The CCC’s report is clear that there is no real detail in the government’s plan on how the enormous ramp up in greenhouse gas removals – a technology which barely exists today – is expected to be achieved.
Celeste Hicks, policy manager at AEF says:
The timing of the CCC’s report couldn’t be worse for the government, confirming what we all already know – a red alert is flashing on aviation decarbonisation progress. This cannot go unnoticed on the day the government debates the level of emissions reductions needed to set Carbon Budget 7. The same government which seems hell bent on handing the sector a huge gift of extra emissions through Heathrow expansion. How one sector is allowed to gobble up everyone else’s progress is truly staggering.”
ENDS
Contact: Celeste Hicks celeste@aef.org.uk // +44 7957 915696 // Tim Johnson tim@aef.org.uk +44 7710 381742
Notes to editors
- TheAviation Environment Federation (AEF) is the principal UK NGO campaigning on aviation’s impacts for people and the environment.
Photo credit: Etienne Jong, Unsplash