Climate Change
Key aviation and climate change facts
Aviation is one of the most energy and carbon intensive forms of transport, whether measured per passenger km or per hour travelling .
Emissions from the aviation industry are forecast to grow both in real terms and as a proportion of the national total. In the UK, the share of emissions taken up by aviation is predicted to grow from around 6% today to 25% by 2050, even if the sector is successfully capped at level of 37.5 MtCO2 (equivalent to UK aviation emissions in 2005) which has been recommended by the Committee on Climate Change .
Globally, while only a small proportion of the world’s population account for the 2.1 billion passenger trips made annually (some 3900 billion passenger kms per year), aviation is already responsible for 2-2.5% of global man-made CO2 emissions today, and expected to grow to between 4 and 15% by 2050 (as cited in this report ).
Aviation contributes towards climate change through a range of ‘non-CO2’ impacts which occur at altitude. The most recent evidence indicates that these non-CO2 effects could double the warming impact of aviation, making the industry’s contribution to global climate change far more significant than current estimates suggest..
London Heathrow is responsible for more CO2 emissions from international, scheduled passenger flights than any other airport globally (see page 41 of this report by aviation expert David Southgate, 2012 figures).
Technology improvements in aircraft efficiency have been unable to keep pace with growth in the overall level of flying. While historic technology improvements look impressive, official UK forecasts predict annual fleet efficiency improvements of less than one percent between now and 2050.
In the UK, where the aviation market is relatively mature, demand for aviation is still expected to grow by around 1-3% annually to 2050, while global growth rates are 4-5% per annum, easily outstripping ICAO’s’s ‘aspirational’ target of annual 2% efficiency gains until 2050.
Challenges and our work on climate change
Unlike many other sectors that are shifting to renewable power, there are few commercially scalable options for ‘decarbonising’ aircraft in the near future. Biofuels, still touted by industry as one of the main solutions, is predicted in Government forecasts to only make up 2.5% of aviation fuel for flights using UK airports by 2050. Two challenges to the take up of biofuels for aviation are producing biofuels which are sustainable and whether the limited supply of bioenergy that is available can be used more efficiently in other sectors. More information on biofuels can be found here .
In addition, the non-CO2 impacts of aviation such as water vapour and nitrogen oxides have a unique climate impact when released at altitude. Water vapour emitted by planes can contribute to the formation of contrails which have a net warming effect, and, where these are persistent, can contribute to the presence of additional cirrus clouds.
A UN report in 2007 (page 9 here ) included estimates of the warming and cooling impacts of all aviation emissions to date using a Radiative Forcing Index (RFI). When summed, these estimates – which remain the most recent figures quoted by the UN IPCC – suggested that aviation emissions have a warming effect 1.9 times that of CO2 alone, excluding the impact of cirrus clouds. Yet scientists say that more work is required to identify a metric that is better suited to future policy measures.
Climate change is a global problem and AEF has been at the forefront of campaigning for international action on aviation emissions as a leading member of the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation. We continue to maintain pressure on the UN’s aviation agency, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) , to agree an effective mechanism for limiting aviation emissions, and we participate in ICAO’s work programme addressing the issue. We have actively supported action at the EU level in the interim, including the extension of the EU ETS to cover airlines.
At a UK level we helped secure wording in the 2008 Climate Change Act requiring aviation emissions to be accounted for, and we continue to campaign for aviation policy to effectively support climate change policy and legislation.
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Jun 13 2019 UK net zero target will allow for aviation emissions, but not legislate for them now May 2 2019 CCC Net Zero Report: We'll still be flying in 2050, but Government can no longer ignore aviation emissions in its climate policies May 1 2019 Heathrow judicial review applications all rejected in one of the largest ever public law challenges Mar 26 2019 New AEF briefing: Why Heathrow can’t solve its carbon problem (and the trouble with offsets) Mar 13 2019 Spring Statement's carbon offset announcement is just a diversion Feb 15 2019 Don't rely on offsetting to solve aviation emissions problem, CCC tells Government Feb 5 2019 European aviation ‘in numbers’ highlights significant environmental challenges ahead Jan 24 2019 Heathrow third runway: an update on the legal challenge process Dec 21 2018 The draft Aviation Strategy: an environmental overview Dec 17 2018 Government sets out draft plans for UK aviation policy Nov 16 2018 Limited scope for biofuels to cut aviation emissions, concludes CCC Nov 2 2018 Sending the right signal: why carbon pricing is essential to reducing aviation emissions Oct 17 2018 Heathrow judicial reviews proceed to full hearing next March Sep 28 2018 AEF discusses how aviation strategy can effectively tackle climate change Sep 19 2018 Aviation industry calls to replace EU ETS are premature Sep 4 2018 Can biofuel decarbonise aviation? Apr 13 2018 Government publishes its ‘next steps’ towards an aviation strategy Mar 8 2018 Aviation in a zero carbon future: what are the options? Jan 25 2018 Heathrow opens Public Consultation on proposed third runway Jan 17 2018 ‘No progress’ on closing aviation emissions policy gap says CCC, on the day Heathrow launches third runway consultation Jan 17 2018 Heathrow public consultation can't resolve air quality and climate change barriers to expansion Dec 20 2017 AEF submits response to DfT consultation on revised draft NPS Oct 17 2017 An international update Oct 12 2017 Clean Growth Strategy fails to address aviation policy gap Oct 2 2017 Is aviation climate policy heading in the right direction? Sep 11 2017 Why Heathrow's sustainability strategy doesn't quite cut it Aug 18 2017 AEF briefing highlights failure of Heathrow NPS to address climate change Jul 26 2017 UK aviation emissions: what’s the plan? Jul 19 2017 AEF launches new campaign: Why the third runway plan can't fly Jun 13 2017 Trump withdraws from the Paris Agreement: where does that leave US aviation emissions? May 24 2017 AEF responds to consultations on airspace policy and expansion May 5 2017 What does the snap election mean for aviation? Feb 23 2017 MPs' damning review of proposals to mitigate Heathrow environmental impacts Feb 15 2017 The NPS for Heathrow expansion: a brief tour Feb 9 2017 Commission announces plan for revisions to aviation’s participation in the EU Emissions trading system Feb 2 2017 Further comment from AEF on today’s aviation consultations Feb 2 2017 AEF reacts to Government launch of major consultations on Heathrow expansion and airport change Jan 26 2017 Incentives for aviation biofuel have a limited role in decarbonisation of air travel Jan 25 2017 New report claims growth in aviation has had no effect on industry emissions Jan 18 2017 Gatwick's carbon neutral commitment excludes 99% of emissions Nov 25 2016 Government must prove that Heathrow expansion won’t breach climate legislation, say official climate advisers Oct 25 2016 What answers has the Government found to the environmental hurdles facing a third runway? Oct 25 2016 Dark day for communities and for the UK’s chance of tackling climate change, as Heathrow announcement shows reckless disregard for environmental targets Oct 24 2016 New AEF briefing: why the UN carbon offsetting deal for aviation can't close the UK policy gap Oct 13 2016 New CCC advice offers no wriggle-room on aviation emissions Oct 6 2016 Global Aviation Climate Deal Concludes With Mixed Results, Aviation Environment Federation comment Sep 29 2016 Five ways to save the UN aviation climate agreement Sep 27 2016 Is it really take off time for climate action in the aviation sector? Aug 9 2016 Cost of flying to increase with a new runway while ICAO calls for major biofuel investment Jun 30 2016 Government approves fifth carbon budget but no aviation emissions plan May 31 2016 Economic and environmental concerns about Scottish Government's Air Passenger Duty plans May 11 2016 Are Heathrow’s concessions enough to address the impacts of a third runway? 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Jan 30 2015 International aviation climate policy failing to deliver on emissions, say scientists Jan 20 2015 The carbon gap in the Airports Commission's new runway analysis Jan 14 2015 Industry group's alternative fuel road-map Nov 11 2014 Our comment on the Airports Commission appraisals of Heathrow and Gatwick runways Nov 10 2014 Airport expansion would be incompatible with climate targets, AEF tells airport operators Nov 10 2014 Davies Commission needs to blow away the hot air in the airports debate Nov 5 2014 If there is a future for Space Tourism then what are its impacts? Oct 7 2014 Briefing: Is a new runway compatible with UK climate policy? Sep 5 2014 US environment agency begins work towards tackling domestic aircraft emissions Sep 4 2014 Rejection of Boris Island brings climate change to the fore Aug 8 2014 Demand for air travel will have to be limited to meet industry CO2 targets Jul 14 2014 The implications of South East expansion for regional airports May 13 2014 Heathrow submits new scheme for a third runway Apr 17 2014 Waste-to-jet fuel plant highlights the opportunities and limitations of alternative fuels Apr 4 2014 European Parliament votes to reduce emissions trading scheme to only cover european flights Mar 3 2014 AEF response to the Airports Commission’s draft Appraisal Framework Jan 10 2014 Update on aviation in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme – political developments within the EU Dec 20 2013 How well did the Airports Commission’s interim report do on our three environmental and social tests? Dec 16 2013 Taking into account the potential constraints on expansion: three tests for the Airports Commission’s Interim Report Nov 1 2013 Green organisations tell Sir Howard Davies that allowing another runway jeopardises UK climate goals Oct 22 2013 Put the No New Runway Option Back on the Table, Sir Howard Davies Oct 21 2013 A global market-based measure for aviation will have minimal impact on developing countries Oct 18 2013 European Commission proposal: limit aviation in the EU ETS to regional airspace Sep 30 2013 Carbon neutral goal won’t neutralise aviation's climate impact says new report Sep 19 2013 ICAO to discuss limiting the EU emissions trading system but where’s the global deal? 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Dec 15 2010 Cancun climate talks fail to address aviation Dec 10 2010 Carbon budget for 2030 - but still equivocation over aviation Dec 3 2010 A December miscellany – VAT, Boris Island and palm oil Nov 8 2010 Hammond announces a new aviation policy Oct 14 2010 Airspace review deferred Oct 12 2010 Assembly fails to deliver on cutting aviation's carbon emissions Sep 3 2010 Huge emissions from Manchester/Dubai Airbus A380 Sep 1 2010 Change of policies from both government and opposition? May 27 2010 AEF to defend EU climate policy against legal challenge May 27 2010 Enviromental groups defend European efforts to reduce aircraft emissions May 14 2010 Biofuels little help on climate change says EU study May 14 2010 EC resists calls for special treatment for airlines following Iceland volcano Apr 20 2010 Grounding of planes has brought relief for many and dramatic cuts in aviation emissions Apr 1 2010 East Midland willow farm a very small step Mar 26 2010 Heathrow third runway opponents claim court victory Feb 19 2010 BA biofuel plan needs taking with a pinch of salt Feb 17 2010 GLA Report – ‘Flights of Fancy’ Jan 27 2010 Carbon Valuation in UK Policy Appraisal Jan 11 2010 Aviation emissions must not be allowed to drive carbon budget into the red, say MPs Dec 23 2009 Copenhagen ends with no progress on aviation emissions Dec 11 2009 Transport Select Committee fails to grasp climate nettle - again Dec 8 2009 Aviation expansion policy is not compatible with climate target, say Government advisors Dec 8 2009 “Predict and provide” UK air transport expansion finally hits the buffers! Dec 3 2009 Aviation emissions should be cut and levies on air travel used to fund adaptation to climate change, says Stern Nov 25 2009 New research challenges industry claim to continuous aircraft emissions improvement Sep 16 2009 Climate forcing from the transport sectors Sep 9 2009 Developed countries must halt growth in aviation emissions, says Climate Committee Sep 9 2009 Developed countries will need to make ‘deep cuts’ in aviation emissions, says Climate Committee Aug 5 2009 Short haul flights should be "progressively replaced" by rail, says transport minister Jul 16 2009 UK low carbon strategy keeps quiet on aviation Jul 15 2009 Meetings with Government and Climate Committee, and a new AEF article on international air tax Jul 14 2009 Better environmental regulation needed for airspace, say MPs Jul 13 2009 ICAO's years of failure on climate Jun 24 2009 'Carbon offsets' divert action from reducing emissions Jun 9 2009 Wind farms v aircraft ? Jun 5 2009 All eyes now on Copenhagen as high level advisory body fails to agree effective action on aviation emissions May 22 2009 What's wrong with the ETS? May 21 2009 Aviation now contributes 4.9% of climate change worldwide May 8 2009 Government climate policy still leaves aviation out of the picture Mar 24 2009 Demand for flights needs to be tackled to bring aviation emissions in line with climate targets, concludes Australian research Mar 13 2009 While scientists call for urgent action on climate, Government predicts that aviation emissions will continue to grow Jan 30 2009 Carbon accounting under the Climate Act: AEF response to DECC consultation Jan 7 2009 Aviation biofuels: how much can they deliver? Dec 1 2008 Aviation emissions should be allowed to grow while other sectors take the strain, Government advisors recommend Nov 21 2008 Stansted campaigners mount legal challenge Nov 10 2008 Climate Bill to demand that international aviation emissions are 'taken account of', but not included in budgets Nov 3 2008 Biofuels, Boeing and land take Oct 23 2008 Aviation and climate change: can alternative fuels save the day? Oct 7 2008 Aviation emissions set to be left out of key UK climate policy Oct 7 2008 Aviation emissions set to be left out of key UK climate policy Sep 16 2008 No basis for airport 'carbon neutral' claims ! Aug 31 2008 Aviation emissions cost assessment 2008 Jul 22 2008 Don't expect big increase in fuel efficiency Jul 22 2008 Top UN climate scientist says businesses should cut carbon by videoconferencing Jul 18 2008 Top UN climate scientist tells business to fly less, use video conferencing more and help fight climate change! Jul 8 2008 Airlines get an easy ride from EU climate deal May 23 2008 Inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme May 23 2008 Deadline approaches for aviation ETS agreement Apr 24 2008 Unpublished report forecasts huge increase in aviation’s global environmental impacts Mar 26 2008 Planning, airport expansion and environmental impacts Dec 14 2007 Aviation CO2 forecasts published Nov 16 2007 Climate Change Bill set to exclude the fastest growing source of carbon emissions Oct 8 2007 ICAO fails to meet the challenge of climate change Aug 29 2007 Heathrow Climate Camp Aug 7 2007 Judge strips BAA injunction down to bare minimum Aug 2 2007 Heathrow injunction seeks to ban millions from 'Climate Camp' Jun 14 2007 AEF responds to Climate Change Bill and to Conservatives' consultation May 30 2007 Only 2 weeks left for climate bill responses! May 30 2007 Climate change bill consultation May 21 2007 It's 13% - official! Apr 3 2007 EU Communication On Emissions Trading System (ETS) Mar 16 2007 Draft Climate Change Bill Published Mar 12 2007 Biofuels No Answer to Aviation Emissions Feb 6 2007 IPCC says climate change "unequivocal" Jan 18 2007 Personal 'carbon calculator' Jan 9 2007 Row about greenhouse gases from aircraft Nov 3 2006 A clutch of reports Jul 27 2005 Emissions Trading Jun 27 2005 More publicity on aviation and climate change Jun 8 2005 Aviation threatens UK climate change obligations Dec 10 2004 The Hidden Cost of Flying (2003) Nov 30 2004 Department for Transport - Aviation and Global Warming [Jan 2004] Nov 11 2004 IPPR: Plane Trading - policies for reducing the climate change effects of international aviation Oct 31 2004 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" Published [1999] Nov 22 2003 Climate Change and the UK Aviation White Paper (Tyndall Briefing Note No. 10, December 2003) Oct 1 2003 Inclusion in the ETS could bring profits for airlines, concludes BAA research Mar 11 2003 AEF: Aviation and Global Climate Change (March 2000)
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