Climate Change
Key aviation and climate change facts
Aviation is one of the most energy and carbon intensive forms of transport, whether measured per passenger km or per hour travelling .
Emissions from the aviation industry are forecast to grow both in real terms and as a proportion of the national total. In the UK, the share of emissions taken up by aviation is predicted to grow from around 6% today to 25% by 2050, even if the sector is successfully capped at level of 37.5 MtCO2 (equivalent to UK aviation emissions in 2005) which has been recommended by the Committee on Climate Change .
Globally, while only a small proportion of the world’s population account for the 2.1 billion passenger trips made annually (some 3900 billion passenger kms per year), aviation is already responsible for 2-2.5% of global man-made CO2 emissions today, and expected to grow to between 4 and 15% by 2050 (as cited in this report ).
Aviation contributes towards climate change through a range of ‘non-CO2’ impacts which occur at altitude. The most recent evidence indicates that these non-CO2 effects could double the warming impact of aviation, making the industry’s contribution to global climate change far more significant than current estimates suggest..
London Heathrow is responsible for more CO2 emissions from international, scheduled passenger flights than any other airport globally (see page 41 of this report by aviation expert David Southgate, 2012 figures).
Technology improvements in aircraft efficiency have been unable to keep pace with growth in the overall level of flying. While historic technology improvements look impressive, official UK forecasts predict annual fleet efficiency improvements of less than one percent between now and 2050.
In the UK, where the aviation market is relatively mature, demand for aviation is still expected to grow by around 1-3% annually to 2050, while global growth rates are 4-5% per annum, easily outstripping ICAO’s’s ‘aspirational’ target of annual 2% efficiency gains until 2050.
Challenges and our work on climate change
Unlike many other sectors that are shifting to renewable power, there are few commercially scalable options for ‘decarbonising’ aircraft in the near future. Biofuels, still touted by industry as one of the main solutions, is predicted in Government forecasts to only make up 2.5% of aviation fuel for flights using UK airports by 2050. Two challenges to the take up of biofuels for aviation are producing biofuels which are sustainable and whether the limited supply of bioenergy that is available can be used more efficiently in other sectors. More information on biofuels can be found here .
In addition, the non-CO2 impacts of aviation such as water vapour and nitrogen oxides have a unique climate impact when released at altitude. Water vapour emitted by planes can contribute to the formation of contrails which have a net warming effect, and, where these are persistent, can contribute to the presence of additional cirrus clouds.
A UN report in 2007 (page 9 here ) included estimates of the warming and cooling impacts of all aviation emissions to date using a Radiative Forcing Index (RFI). When summed, these estimates – which remain the most recent figures quoted by the UN IPCC – suggested that aviation emissions have a warming effect 1.9 times that of CO2 alone, excluding the impact of cirrus clouds. Yet scientists say that more work is required to identify a metric that is better suited to future policy measures.
Climate change is a global problem and AEF has been at the forefront of campaigning for international action on aviation emissions as a leading member of the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation. We continue to maintain pressure on the UN’s aviation agency, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) , to agree an effective mechanism for limiting aviation emissions, and we participate in ICAO’s work programme addressing the issue. We have actively supported action at the EU level in the interim, including the extension of the EU ETS to cover airlines.
At a UK level we helped secure wording in the 2008 Climate Change Act requiring aviation emissions to be accounted for, and we continue to campaign for aviation policy to effectively support climate change policy and legislation.
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Dec 3 2009 Aviation emissions should be cut and levies on air travel used to fund adaptation to climate change, says Stern Nov 25 2009 New research challenges industry claim to continuous aircraft emissions improvement Sep 16 2009 Climate forcing from the transport sectors Sep 9 2009 Developed countries must halt growth in aviation emissions, says Climate Committee Sep 9 2009 Developed countries will need to make ‘deep cuts’ in aviation emissions, says Climate Committee Aug 5 2009 Short haul flights should be "progressively replaced" by rail, says transport minister Jul 16 2009 UK low carbon strategy keeps quiet on aviation Jul 15 2009 Meetings with Government and Climate Committee, and a new AEF article on international air tax Jul 14 2009 Better environmental regulation needed for airspace, say MPs Jul 13 2009 ICAO's years of failure on climate Jun 24 2009 'Carbon offsets' divert action from reducing emissions Jun 9 2009 Wind farms v aircraft ? Jun 5 2009 All eyes now on Copenhagen as high level advisory body fails to agree effective action on aviation emissions May 22 2009 What's wrong with the ETS? May 21 2009 Aviation now contributes 4.9% of climate change worldwide May 8 2009 Government climate policy still leaves aviation out of the picture Mar 24 2009 Demand for flights needs to be tackled to bring aviation emissions in line with climate targets, concludes Australian research Mar 13 2009 While scientists call for urgent action on climate, Government predicts that aviation emissions will continue to grow Jan 30 2009 Carbon accounting under the Climate Act: AEF response to DECC consultation Jan 7 2009 Aviation biofuels: how much can they deliver? Dec 1 2008 Aviation emissions should be allowed to grow while other sectors take the strain, Government advisors recommend Nov 21 2008 Stansted campaigners mount legal challenge Nov 10 2008 Climate Bill to demand that international aviation emissions are 'taken account of', but not included in budgets Nov 3 2008 Biofuels, Boeing and land take Oct 23 2008 Aviation and climate change: can alternative fuels save the day? Oct 7 2008 Aviation emissions set to be left out of key UK climate policy Oct 7 2008 Aviation emissions set to be left out of key UK climate policy Sep 16 2008 No basis for airport 'carbon neutral' claims ! Aug 31 2008 Aviation emissions cost assessment 2008 Jul 22 2008 Don't expect big increase in fuel efficiency Jul 22 2008 Top UN climate scientist says businesses should cut carbon by videoconferencing Jul 18 2008 Top UN climate scientist tells business to fly less, use video conferencing more and help fight climate change! Jul 8 2008 Airlines get an easy ride from EU climate deal May 23 2008 Inclusion of aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme May 23 2008 Deadline approaches for aviation ETS agreement Apr 24 2008 Unpublished report forecasts huge increase in aviation’s global environmental impacts Mar 26 2008 Planning, airport expansion and environmental impacts Dec 14 2007 Aviation CO2 forecasts published Nov 16 2007 Climate Change Bill set to exclude the fastest growing source of carbon emissions Oct 8 2007 ICAO fails to meet the challenge of climate change Aug 29 2007 Heathrow Climate Camp Aug 7 2007 Judge strips BAA injunction down to bare minimum Aug 2 2007 Heathrow injunction seeks to ban millions from 'Climate Camp' Jun 14 2007 AEF responds to Climate Change Bill and to Conservatives' consultation May 30 2007 Only 2 weeks left for climate bill responses! May 30 2007 Climate change bill consultation May 21 2007 It's 13% - official! Apr 3 2007 EU Communication On Emissions Trading System (ETS) Mar 16 2007 Draft Climate Change Bill Published Mar 12 2007 Biofuels No Answer to Aviation Emissions Feb 6 2007 IPCC says climate change "unequivocal" Jan 18 2007 Personal 'carbon calculator' Jan 9 2007 Row about greenhouse gases from aircraft Nov 3 2006 A clutch of reports Jul 27 2005 Emissions Trading Jun 27 2005 More publicity on aviation and climate change Jun 8 2005 Aviation threatens UK climate change obligations Dec 10 2004 The Hidden Cost of Flying (2003) Nov 30 2004 Department for Transport - Aviation and Global Warming [Jan 2004] Nov 11 2004 IPPR: Plane Trading - policies for reducing the climate change effects of international aviation Oct 31 2004 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" Published [1999] Nov 22 2003 Climate Change and the UK Aviation White Paper (Tyndall Briefing Note No. 10, December 2003) Oct 1 2003 Inclusion in the ETS could bring profits for airlines, concludes BAA research Mar 11 2003 AEF: Aviation and Global Climate Change (March 2000)
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